Les îles touristiques à la merci du changement climatique : une évaluation par un indice synthétique de vulnérabilité physique

This article aims to assess the vulnerability of small island territories that depend on tourism specialization to the consequences of climate change. Firstly, these areas, regardless of the specialization selected, are structurally exposed to the consequences of climate change. Secondly, tourism is by nature an activity highly dependent on geo-climatic conditions. Therefore, the combination of insularity and tourism specialization is likely to lead to an exacerbated vulnerability to climate change compared to other territories. However, the physical consequences of climate change are not spatially homogeneous, neither between different regions of the world nor within the same region. They are largely dependent on the initial geographical and climatic characteristics (independently of human and economic aspects, or the development model chosen). In order to analyze this heterogeneity, we use the physical vulnerability to climate change index (PVCCI) recently developed by the FERDI, which aggregates the different dimensions of risks linked to this phenomenon. This index is applied to an increased sample of 250 economies, including 100 sovereign or affiliated small islands. Our results show that small island economies with tourism specialization are in fact significantly more physically vulnerable to climate change compared to other groups, and therefore present a development model whose sustainability is not guaranteed in the absence of mitigation and adaptation policies.