Regionale Kompetenzzyklen – Zur Bedeutung von Produktlebenszyklus- und Clusteransätzen im regionalen Kontext

Modelling the path of the regional product cycle and adding dynamic and stochastic aspects suggests the likelihood of multiple equilibria; bunches of divergent paths of the product cycle may result, depending on starting conditions and parameter size. Narrow clusters of traditional products based on localisation economies, for instance, are quite likely to age, following the traditional bell-shaped path: accelerating expansion, congestion and Saturation, sclerosis and decline. Clusters based on urbanisation economies, on the other hand, face a much lower probability of aging, and if they do, they tend to pass the stages more slowly; their greater adaptability results from the higher information density of the region. Regions characterised by coexistence of several clusters are the ones most likely to avoid aging. Neither theoretical arguments nor historical examples, however, can be found in favour of a regional cycle in literal sense: a new product cycle following the declining one necessarily or at least with some likelihood.