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Conservatorship, quantitative easing, and mortgage spreads: a new multi-equation score-driven model of policy actions

Author

Listed:
  • Blazsek Szabolcs

    (School of Business, Universidad Francisco MarroquĂ­n, Guatemala City, 01010, Guatemala)

  • Blazsek Virag

    (School of Law, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK)

  • Kobor Adam

    (Investment Office, New York University, New York NY, 10012, USA)

Abstract

In this paper, the effects of United States (US) policy actions on mortgage-backed security and mortgage loan spreads are measured, by using data before, during, and after the US subprime mortgage crisis. We study the effects of the following policy actions: (i) the placement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into US Government conservatorship; (ii) the US Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) programs. We provide the following contributions to the literature: (i) for a robust measurement of policy effects, a new multi-equation score-driven t-QVARMA (quasi-vector autoregressive moving average) model is used. (ii) In addition to the measurement of the effects of QE, the effects of government conservatorship are also measured in this paper. (iii) Furthermore, the data period of the relevant literature is extended to the period of June 1998 to March 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Blazsek Szabolcs & Blazsek Virag & Kobor Adam, 2023. "Conservatorship, quantitative easing, and mortgage spreads: a new multi-equation score-driven model of policy actions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 237-264, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:27:y:2023:i:2:p:237-264:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2021-0066
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic conditional score (DCS); generalized autoregressive score (GAS); government conservatorship; government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs); mortgage-backed securities (MBSs); quantitative easing (QE) programs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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