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Will COVID-19 Cause a War? Understanding the Case of the U.S. and China

Author

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  • Bapat Navin

    (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA)

Abstract

This study analyzes the possibility that COVID-19 will increase the risk of a military conflict between the United States and People’s Republic of China. The mechanism is that COVID-19 weakens American economic output, which undermines the U.S. capability to project force. This enables China’s efforts to revise the status quo. Although a rapid collapse of American power due to COVID-19 would theoretically increase the likelihood of an armed conflict, this scenario is unlikely due to the centrality of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system. I therefore argue that COVID-19 increases the short term risk of military crises, particularly in the South China Sea and Persian Gulf, but does not significantly increase the likelihood of a power transition and full scale war. However, the long term depends on the ability of the U.S. to respond adequately to the COVID-19 crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Bapat Navin, 2020. "Will COVID-19 Cause a War? Understanding the Case of the U.S. and China," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(3), pages 1-09, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:26:y:2020:i:3:p:09:n:13
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2020-0047
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