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The Elusive Determinants of Civil Wars

Author

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  • Janus Thorsten

    (University of Wyoming, Department of Economics, College of Business Department 3985, 1000 E. University Ave., Laramie, WY 82071, USA, Phone: +1 (307) 766-3384)

Abstract

Like the empirical growth literature, the empirical civil war literature has identified few robust determinants. In this paper, I show that the lack of robust estimates is consistent with rational, forward-looking behavior in a simple dynamic conflict model with asymmetric information. The main result is most of the conflict determinants, such as income per capita, inequality, and natural resource revenues, have ambiguous effects on the conflict risk. The ambiguities largely reflect that, when the parameters change, agents re-optimize.

Suggested Citation

  • Janus Thorsten, 2019. "The Elusive Determinants of Civil Wars," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 25(3), pages 1-15, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:25:y:2019:i:3:p:15:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; political economy; political instability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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