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Immigration and anti-immigrant voting in the 2017 German parliamentary election

Author

Listed:
  • Kellermann Kim Leonie
  • Winter Simon

    (9185 University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics, Scharnhorststr. 100, 48151 Münster, Germany)

Abstract

We empirically examine the relationship between immigration and votes for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in the 2017 German parliamentary election. We conduct a cross-sectional analysis, exploiting election results and socio-demographic as well as geographic features of the 401 German administrative districts. We find that immigration has a negative effect on AfD voting. A 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreigners is associated with a decrease in the AfD vote share of up to 0.37 percentage points. The result is robust to several estimation variations, such as addressing the potentially endogenous distribution of foreigners with an instrumental variable analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Kellermann Kim Leonie & Winter Simon, 2022. "Immigration and anti-immigrant voting in the 2017 German parliamentary election," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 341-401, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:23:y:2022:i:3:p:341-401:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0026
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; anti-immigrant voting; refugee crisis; contact theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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