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The Sure-Thing Principle

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  • Pearl Judea

    (Computer Science Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, 90095–1596, USA)

Abstract

In 1954, Jim Savage introduced the Sure Thing Principle to demonstrate that preferences among actions could constitute an axiomatic basis for a Bayesian foundation of statistical inference. Here, we trace the history of the principle, discuss some of its nuances, and evaluate its significance in the light of modern understanding of causal reasoning.

Suggested Citation

  • Pearl Judea, 2016. "The Sure-Thing Principle," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 81-86, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:causin:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:81-86:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/jci-2016-0005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Allan Gibbard & William L Harper, 1976. "Counterfactuals and Two Kinds of Expected Utility," Discussion Papers 194, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
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