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The Dynamics of Fertility and Growth: Baby Boom, Bust and Bounce-Back

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  • Day Creina

    (The Australian National University)

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic interplay between economic growth and fertility as a developed economy moves through two distinct phases: women at home and raising children full time; women entering the work force and raising children part time. Women's relative wages rise with economic growth, as per Galor and Weil (1996). Higher wages make children more affordable. On the other hand, children are more costly when maternal time, used in child rearing, could be supplied to the labor market. I extend Galor and Weil (1996) by introducing goods and services as a child rearing input. A Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function for child rearing allows for varying degrees of substitutability between goods and time. The existence of an alternative input to maternal time generates a baby boom-bust cycle: fertility rises in the first phase and falls in the second. Whilst fertility declines unambiguously at the beginning of the second phase, as women enter the labor force, it may bounce-back before reaching a steady state as income effects start to dominate.

Suggested Citation

  • Day Creina, 2004. "The Dynamics of Fertility and Growth: Baby Boom, Bust and Bounce-Back," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:topics.4:y:2004:i:1:n:14
    DOI: 10.2202/1534-5998.1167
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Creina Day & Steve Dowrick, 2010. "What Entices the Stork? Fertility, Education and Family Payments," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(s1), pages 69-79, September.
    2. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2014. "Does Economic Advancement ‘Cause’ a Re-increase in Fertility? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries (1960–2007)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 187-221, May.
    3. Day, Creina & Guest, Ross, 2016. "Fertility and female wages: A new link via house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 121-132.
    4. Angela Luci-Greulich & Olivier Thévenon, 2013. "The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 387-416, November.
    5. Maricruz Lacalle-Calderon & Manuel Perez-Trujillo & Isabel Neira, 2017. "Fertility and Economic Development: Quantile Regression Evidence on the Inverse J-shaped Pattern," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31, February.
    6. Georgios Mavropoulos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2021. "On the drivers of the fertility rebound," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 821-845, August.
    7. Creina Day, 2012. "Will Fertility Rebound In Japan," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 395, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Creina Day, 2016. "Can Theory Explain the Evidence on Fertility Decline Reversal?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(2), pages 136-145, February.
    9. Creina Day & Ross S. Guest, 2014. "The Effect of Gender Wages and Working Age Populations on Fertility and House Prices," Crawford School Research Papers 1401, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2011. "The impact of family policy packages on fertility trends in developed countries," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00660630, HAL.
    11. Creina Day, 2012. "Economic Growth, Gender Wage Gap and Fertility Rebound," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(s1), pages 88-99, June.

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