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International Historical Evidence on Money Growth and Inflation: The Role of High Inflation Episodes

Author

Listed:
  • Fratianni Michele

    (Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA)

  • Gallegati Marco

    (DISES, Faculty of Economics “G. Fuà”, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Piazzale Martelli 8, Ancona, Italy)

  • Giri Federico

    (DISES, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy)

Abstract

How long is the long run in the relationship between money growth and inflation? How important are high inflation episodes for the unit slope finding in the quantity theory of money? To answer these questions, we study the relationship between excess money growth and inflation over time and across frequencies using annual data from 1870 to 2013 for 16 developed countries. Wavelet-based exploratory analysis shows the existence of a close stable relationship between excess money growth and inflation only over long time horizons, i.e. periods greater than 16–24 years, with money growth mostly leading. When we investigate the sensitivity of the unit slope finding to inflation episodes using a “time-frequency-based” panel data approach, we find that low-frequency regression coefficients estimated over variable-length subsamples are largely affected by high inflation episodes occurring in the 1910s, the 1940s, and the 1970s. Taken together, our results suggest that inflationary upsurges affect regression coefficients, but not the closeness of the long-run relationship. This reconciles the validity of the quantity theory of money with the current disinterest of monetary policymaking in money growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Fratianni Michele & Gallegati Marco & Giri Federico, 2021. "International Historical Evidence on Money Growth and Inflation: The Role of High Inflation Episodes," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 541-564, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:21:y:2021:i:2:p:541-564:n:6
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2019-0183
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fratianni, Michele & Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico, 2022. "The medium-run Phillips curve: A time–frequency investigation for the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Magazzino, Cosimo & Giolli, Lorenzo, 2021. "The relationship among railway networks, energy consumption, and real added value in Italy. Evidence form ARDL and Wavelet analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging," Trinity Economics Papers tep0721, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2021.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    quantity theory of money; time-frequency analysis; low frequency relationships; high inflation episodes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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