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The Effects of Financial Market Uncertainty: Does Regime Change Occur During Financial Market Crises? (in Korean)

Author

Listed:
  • Seewon Kim

    (Department of Economics, Chonnam National University)

Abstract

Using a stochastic volatility-in-mean VAR model consisting of the KOSPI index, the foreign exchange rate, the government bond rate, and the credit spread, this study investigates the effects of financial market uncertainty on financial markets. We find that higher uncertainty has recessionary effects on financial markets. The effects are especially stronger in equity markets and in won-dollar exchange markets. We also find that the effects of uncertainty become stronger during times of financial market stress compared to normal times. Finally, the results imply that financial market uncertainty may potentially affect the real sector, too.

Suggested Citation

  • Seewon Kim, 2019. "The Effects of Financial Market Uncertainty: Does Regime Change Occur During Financial Market Crises? (in Korean)," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 25(3), pages 70-99, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bok:journl:v:25:y:2019:i:3:p:70-99
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Stochastic volatility; Economic crisis; SV-in-mean VAR model; Regime change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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