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Efectos de en los términos de intercambio de las materias primas sobre el PIB observado y potencial de Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Álvaro Céspedes T.
  • Juan Carlos Carlo Santos
  • José A. Pantoja Ballivián

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

En esta investigación se analizan los efectos de shocks permanentes de términos de intercambio (TI) de los commodities sobre el PIB observado y potencial de Bolivia de 1970 a 2018. Se recurrió a una función de producción tipo neoclásica para hallar el producto potencial y, para la estimación de los shocks persistentes de los TI, se empleó el método de Vectores Autorregresivos con Proyecciones Locales. Se evidenció una importante relación entre la Productividad Total de Factores y el PIB potencial, tanto en los periodos de las caídas sistemáticas de los TI (1980q1 - 1988q3) como en los de expansión sostenida (2005q1-2014q2). Asimismo, se resalta la mayor importancia relativa que adquirió el factor capital para explicar el crecimiento desde el año 2010. Impactos de shocks persistentes de los TI serían significativos sobre el crecimiento del PIB observado y potencial, pero la magnitud del efecto en estas variables sería menor con caídas continuas de los TI. .

Suggested Citation

  • Álvaro Céspedes T. & Juan Carlos Carlo Santos & José A. Pantoja Ballivián, 2019. "Efectos de en los términos de intercambio de las materias primas sobre el PIB observado y potencial de Bolivia," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 30(1), pages 85-123, January -.
    • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:30:y:2019:i:1:p:85-123
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Producto potencial; superciclo de precios de commodities; términos de intercambio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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