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Trade and foreign direct investment‐related impacts of Brexit

Author

Listed:
  • María C. Latorre
  • Zoryana Olekseyuk
  • Hidemichi Yonezawa

Abstract

We offer a general‐equilibrium analysis of Brexit incorporating the state‐of‐the‐art differences in productivity and firms' selection within manufacturing sectors à la Melitz (Econometrica, 2003, 71, 1695) and multinationals in services. Our results suggest that trade, output and average productivity diminish across most sectors in the UK and the Rest of the European Union (REU), as well as GDP, welfare, wages and capital remuneration. However, the UK loses more due to the missing preferential access to the huge EU market. Significant welfare losses along the extensive margin occur in the UK due to the lost imported varieties produced by highly productive European firms. These cannot be compensated by the new varieties of less productive domestic firms that enter the British market due to increased protectionism and reduced import competition. In addition, the emergence of barriers against multinationals, which is often ignored in previous studies, explains approximately one third of the negative effect in both the UK and REU. Furthermore, we show that the Brexit impact is about only half if we do not include both foreign direct investment barriers and Melitz structure. Thus, previous studies without these important model features would underestimate the Brexit impact significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • María C. Latorre & Zoryana Olekseyuk & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2020. "Trade and foreign direct investment‐related impacts of Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 2-32, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:43:y:2020:i:1:p:2-32
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12859
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    Cited by:

    1. Suarez-Cuesta, David & Latorre, Maria C. & Lawrence, Robert Z., 2022. "Macroeconomic, sectoral and distributional effects of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in the United States," Conference papers 333457, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Oscar Bajo‐Rubio & Antonio G. Gómez‐Plana, 2022. "A multi‐country analysis of austerity policies in the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 4-35, January.
    3. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2021. "FDI in China and global production networks: Assessing the role of and impact on big world players," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1225-1240.
    4. Raouf Boucekkine & Carmen Camacho & Weihua Ruan & Benteng Zou, 2022. "Why and when coalitions split? An alternative analytical approach with an application to environmental agreements," Working Papers halshs-03676670, HAL.
    5. Moshfique Uddin & Anup Chowdhury & Geoffrey Wood, 2022. "The resilience of the British and European goods industry: Challenge of Brexit," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(4), pages 934-954.
    6. Konstantinos Koasidis & Alexandros Nikas & Hera Neofytou & Anastasios Karamaneas & Ajay Gambhir & Jakob Wachsmuth & Haris Doukas, 2020. "The UK and German Low-Carbon Industry Transitions from a Sectoral Innovation and System Failures Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-34, September.
    7. Latorre, María C. & Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Yonezawa, Hidemichi & Robinson, Sherman, 2020. "Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 72-87.

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