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Threshold setting and the cycling of a decision threshold

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  • Elise A. Weaver
  • George Richardson

Abstract

When policy‐makers use a test result with a cut‐off score in a decision, the cut‐off threshold may change over time. An example is the threshold of “reasonable suspicion” used to justify a police search. Hammond (1996) postulated that a decision threshold will oscillate over time in response to competing pressures from affected constituencies, as unavoidable cases of false positives (e.g., innocent people searched) and false negatives (e.g., guilty people overlooked) emerge from the uncertainty of using an imperfect test (e.g., level of evidence) to predict the actual measure of interest (e.g., guilt). The structural underpinnings of a cycling threshold are analyzed in this theory‐building article. First, we present a simplified converging model of Hammond's initial insight. Then, we present three alternative models: a model with delays in policy‐maker responsiveness; one with stakeholders' shifting constituencies in response to recent errors; and one with integral control representing the historical dissatisfaction of competing constituencies. The “history” model meets the theoretical requirements set out by Hammond and fits historical data regarding FBI denials of access to information regarding a third party due to privacy concerns. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Elise A. Weaver & George Richardson, 2006. "Threshold setting and the cycling of a decision threshold," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 22(1), pages 1-26, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:22:y:2006:i:1:p:1-26
    DOI: 10.1002/sdr.327
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Goldschmidt, 2007. "Managing the false alarms: A framework for assurance and verification of surveillance monitoring," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 541-556, November.
    2. Peter Wijck, 2013. "The economics of pre-crime interventions," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 441-458, June.
    3. Navid Ghaffarzadegan, 2008. "How a System Backfires: Dynamics of Redundancy Problems in Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(6), pages 1669-1687, December.
    4. Özge Karanfil & John Sterman, 2020. "“Saving lives or harming the healthy?” Overuse and fluctuations in routine medical screening," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(3), pages 294-329, July.

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