Macht en onmacht van de statistiek

Power and limitations of statistics It is certainly worth‐while to devote some attention to the power of statistics, which from the point of view of both science and technique is showing a steady development. This is illustrated, for example, by the considerable interest displayed in the work of the Association for Statistics, as is evident from the growing number of members, the number of candidates for the examinations for statistical analyst and the number of people attending the Statistical Days. Furthermore, there is the appreciation shown by industry of the productivity investigations carried out by the Central Bureau of Statistics and of the establishment of the Quality Control Service for Industry. Naturally, it is in itself commendable that efforts are being made to analyse and gauge social life. One cannot escape the impression, however, that in the case of the Netherlands—taking the authorities, industry and social research as a whole—we are aiming rather higher than can be achieved with the intellectual man power available. In this connection the speaker pointed out that the people of the Netherlands will have to give serious attention both to the selection and training of the talented and to the manner in which the most efficient use can be made of the talent present among the population. As matters stand now we are incapable of realizing our power. The power of statistics is, moreover, evident from the part it is beginning to play in government policy. We have nowadays a whole series of index figures of the Central Bureau of Statistics, which fulfil a basic function in determining the economic and social policies to be followed. At the present time, however, the influence of statistics often goes much further. Its function can be compared to that of the “automatic pilot”, i.e. any change in a given statistical magnitude involves certain consequences in virtue of some law, agreement or contract. The speaker illustrated this point with a number of examples. He expressed his appreciation of the fact that there is a general tendency to take statistics seriously. There is no one more aware of his limitations than the statistician who is promoted to the position of oracle. His statistical series were originally compiled for purposes other than those for which they are now used. According to the speaker it was doubtful whether the statistician would ever be able to come up fully to the expectations which people nou ‘ jve of him. In all statistics there is invariably an element of abstraction and generalization. The reality is always infinitely more differentiated than can he expressed by means of statistics. Anyone handling the index figure for the cost of domestic consumption, for example, should know that it is based on an assumption in respect of reality, viz. that this consumption is always the same, and not on reality itself. This does not detract from the value of the index figures as a theoretical aid, but as a basis for practical work they should be surrounded with a multitude of warning signs. In conclusion the speaker pointed out a more popular example of the power of statistics, viz. the poll whereby the trend of opinion is established. In this sphere, too, the limits of statistics are clearly defined. In how far is it possible to determine statistically certain views, ideas, attitudes, etc. There are innumerable magnitudes of great social importance in the life of a community, which cannot be classified and thus cannot be measured statistically.