Detecting Florida's Gerrymander: A Lesson in Putting First Things First

Objective We show that Florida's post‐2010 congressional districts were an ex ante knowable gerrymander, which, if diagnosed as a factual matter before enactment, would have avoided both the 2012 and 2014 harm and the state's unnecessarily burdensome reliance on a showing of intent. Method We recount the legal focus on intent, apply the McDonald‐Best equal vote weight effects test standard to the Florida facts, and use more than 25,000 simulated districting plans to check on whether there was a gerrymander effect. Results We find a pro‐Republican gerrymander effect could have been detected in advance of enacting Florida's redistricting plan. Conclusion In specific reference to Florida, we conclude the enacted districts could have been identified as a gerrymander beforehand, allowing court proceedings to move expeditiously and with a clear focus. As a general matter, we conclude a comprehensive approach to gerrymandering is best served by following a two‐part prescription: (1) set an effect standard for identifying a gerrymander and (2) know the intent by checking the facts against the standard.