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Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed

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Author Info
Efrem Castelnuovo
Paolo Surico

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Abstract

Monetary policy in the US is characterized by a substantial degree of inertia. While in principle this may well be the outcome of an optimizing central bank behaviour, the ability of any derived policy rule to match the data relies on so large weights for interest rate smoothing into policy makers' preferences as to be theoretically flawed. In this paper we investigate whether such a puzzle can be interpreted as resulting from the concern of monetary authorities for potential misspecifications of the macroeconomic dynamics. Accordingly, we propose a novel "thick modelling" approach that incorporates model uncertainty into the identification of central bank's preferences. The "thick" robust policy rule shows the kind of smoothness observed in the data without resorting to implausible values for the preference parameters. Copyright (c) Scottish Economic Society 2004.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Scottish Economic Society in its journal Scottish Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 51 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 105-126
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Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:51:y:2004:i:1:p:105-126

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  1. Timothy Kam & Kirdan Lees & Philip Liu, 2006. "Uncovering The Hit-List For Small Inflation Targeters: A Bayesian Structural Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-24, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Describing the Fed's conduct with simple Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Working Paper Series 232, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2003. "Policy Makers' Preferences, Party Ideology and the Political Business Cycle," Emory Economics 0319, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
  5. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Richard Dennis, 2006. "The policy preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 55-77. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Richard Dennis, 2004. "Specifying and estimating New Keynesian models with instrument rules and optimal monetary policies," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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