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Taylor Rules for the ECB using Expectations Data

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Author Info
Janko Gorter
Jan Jacobs
Jakob de Haan

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Abstract

We estimate Taylor rules for the euro area using Consensus Economics data for expected inflation and output growth, and compare these estimates with more conventional specifications in which actual outcomes are used. We find that the ECB takes expected inflation and expected output growth into account in setting interest rates, while in the more conventional model specification, the coefficient of realized inflation is not significantly different from zero. Copyright © The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics" 2008 .

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00547.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 110 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 473-488
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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:110:y:2008:i:3:p:473-488

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  1. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2009. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule? - Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0133, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.

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