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Official Revisions To South African National Accounts Data: Magnitudes And Implications

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  • Corné Van Walbeek

Abstract

This paper investigates the bias and dispersion in official revisions of eight national accounting growth rates. The growth in GDP, consumption expenditure and personal disposable income by households has been subject to significant upward revisions and bias, especially after 1994. No significant bias was found in the revisions to the other national accounting aggregates. The official revisions are subject to a high degree of dispersion. Based on the 1984‐2003 period, there is a 30 per cent probability that the “final” growth rate in GDE deviates by more than 5 percentage points from the first release growth rate. For most magnitudes, other than exports and imports, the dispersion in South Africa's official revisions is similar to that of a sample of OECD countries. Using two examples, it is shown that the vintage of the data has a profound impact on the magnitude and significance of regression results based on such data.

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  • Corné Van Walbeek, 2006. "Official Revisions To South African National Accounts Data: Magnitudes And Implications," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 745-765, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:74:y:2006:i:4:p:745-765
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2006.00094.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronney Ncwadi, 2016. "Assessing Efficiency of GDP Revisions in South Africa," Journal of Education and e-Learning Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(2), pages 72-77.
    2. Dieter Brümmerhoff & Michael Grömling, 2013. "Ökonomische Auswirkungen von VGR-Revisionen," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 6(3), pages 133-148, March.
    3. Stan du Plessis & Malan Rietveld, 2013. "Should inflation targeting be abandoned in favour of nominal income targeting?," Working Papers 12/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.

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