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The 2020 Presidential election: A race against mortality

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  • Linus Wilson

Abstract

A year from the inauguration, four of the top five Democratic 2020 U.S. Presidential election candidates in the polls are in their seventies. Using actuarial data and the history of Presidential assassinations, the top two contenders, Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, have a 24–29% chance of not surviving to the end of a hypothetical first term. The 77 and 78‐year‐old men's chances of dying before the end of a second term as President of the United States are between 46 and 56%.

Suggested Citation

  • Linus Wilson, 2020. "The 2020 Presidential election: A race against mortality," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 229-242, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rmgtin:v:23:y:2020:i:3:p:229-242
    DOI: 10.1111/rmir.12156
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