Estimating, Explaining, And Targeting Poverty In Belize: Implications For Policy

This paper focuses on estimating, explaining, and targeting poverty in Belize. The analysis is based on household†level data derived from a national income and expenditure survey conducted in 1990. The paper estimates that the incidence of poverty was about 23 percent at that time nationwide, although there were significant differences in the incidence of poverty across rural and urban areas and across districts and subdistricts of the country. The analysis shows that the household head's age and education level and the household's size, number of children, and location appear to be significant explanators of the incidence of poverty; and, on the other hand, the investigation demonstrates that the head's gender, migration status, worker type, and sector of employment do not seem to explain, to any significant degree, the existence of poverty. The paper also illustrates the importance of sound targeting procedures in keeping poverty reduction costs low as a greater number of beneficiaries are included in such anti†poverty programs. In addition, the analysis shows the clear tradeoff between undercoverage and leakage errors in program implementation. Finally, the paper suggests that poverty program geographic targeting errors would probably not be reduced substantially if subdistricts were used as targets instead of districts in Belize.