Estimating the Value of Implicit Government Guarantees to Thai Banks
AbstractThe paper estimates the contingent liability of the Thai government to their banking system prior to the 1997 financial crisis by maximizing a likelihood function that utilizes the established result that deposit insurance can be modeled as a put option on the value of bank assets. The results show that the estimated value of the government guarantee was large and statistically greater than the premium banks paid for this guarantee, suggesting that guarantees provided a subsidy to Thai banks. Additionally, the estimates are able to identify weak banks before the crisis emerged. These results suggest that the estimated value of implicit deposit guarantees can serve as an early warning indicator of banking crises. The paper contrasts the option pricing results with traditional balance sheet indicators, and demonstrates that these alternative indicators are unable to identify weaknesses in the Thai banking systems before the crisis. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of International Economics.
Volume (Year): 10 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576
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- Opiela, Timothy P., 2004. "Was there an implicit full guarantee at financial institutions in Thailand? Evidence of risk pricing by depositors," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 519-541, September.
- Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2005.
"Estimating Systemic Risk in the International Financial System,"
6658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bartram, Sohnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2007. "Estimating systemic risk in the international financial system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 835-869, December.
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