Moving to safety and staying in school: The effects of violence on enrollment decisions in Mexico

There is a vast literature documenting negative impacts of crime on human capital accumulation, which has focused on large‐scale armed conflicts affecting both individuals and infrastructure. However, there is much less evidence in contexts where violence is not accompanied by the destruction of infrastructure. To fill this gap, this paper studies the effects of Mexico's War on Drugs (WoD) on individuals’ schooling decisions. Our results show only small effects of violence on total enrollment of children and young adults, in contrast to recent studies which find significant negative effects for some specific age‐by‐gender groups. Our analysis, which aims to assess the overall impacts of the WoD on enrollment decisions and takes advantage of various rounds of administrative data, the population census, and labor force surveys, shows that many families responded to the increase in violence by migrating to less affected municipalities. However, we find that their education decisions have been quite robust as greater violence did not affect their probability of being enrolled in school. In the long term, however, it is still possible that the increase in violence affects human capital accumulation through indirect effects arising in skill acquisition in early childhood and other stages.