IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popdev/v48y2022i2p279-302.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity Analysis of Excess Mortality due to the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Marília R. Nepomuceno
  • Ilya Klimkin
  • Dmitri A. Jdanov
  • Ainhoa Alustiza‐Galarza
  • Vladimir M. Shkolnikov

Abstract

Estimating excess mortality is challenging. The metric depends on the expected mortality level, which can differ based on given choices, such as the method and the time series length used to estimate the baseline. However, these choices are often arbitrary, and are not subject to any sensitivity analysis. We bring to light the importance of carefully choosing the inputs and methods used to estimate excess mortality. Drawing on data from 26 countries, we investigate how sensitive excess mortality is to the choice of the mortality index, the number of years included in the reference period, the method, and the time unit of the death series. We employ two mortality indices, three reference periods, two data time units, and four methods for estimating the baseline. We show that excess mortality estimates can vary substantially when these factors are changed, and that the largest variations stem from the choice of the mortality index and the method. We also find that the magnitude of the variation in excess mortality is country‐specific, resulting in cross‐country rankings changes. Finally, based on our findings, we provide guidelines for estimating excess mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Marília R. Nepomuceno & Ilya Klimkin & Dmitri A. Jdanov & Ainhoa Alustiza‐Galarza & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, 2022. "Sensitivity Analysis of Excess Mortality due to the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(2), pages 279-302, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:48:y:2022:i:2:p:279-302
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12475
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12475
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/padr.12475?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Murphy, 2017. "Demographic Determinants of Population Aging in Europe since 1850," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43(2), pages 257-283, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tu, Yunbo & Meng, Xinzhu & Alzahrani, Abdullah Khames & Zhang, Tonghua, 2023. "Multi-objective optimization and nonlinear dynamics for sub-healthy COVID-19 epidemic model subject to self-diffusion and cross-diffusion," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    2. Maria Francesca Carfora & Albina Orlando, 2023. "A Preliminary Investigation of a Single Shock Impact on Italian Mortality Rates Using STMF Data: A Case Study of COVID-19," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-12, June.
    3. Alois Pichler & Dana Uhlig, 2023. "Mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(20), pages 1-11, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raisa Țăruș & Ștefan Dezsi & Florin Pop, 2021. "Ageing Urban Population Prognostic between 2020 and 2050 in Transylvania Region (Romania)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Tianyu Shen & Collin Payne, 2021. "The role of reductions in old-age mortality in old-age population growth," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(44), pages 1073-1084.
    3. Walesiak Marek & Dehnel Grażyna, 2019. "Assessment of Changes in Population Ageing of Polish Provinces in 2002, 2010 and 2017 Using the Hybrid Approach," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 23(4), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Samuel H. Preston & Yana C. Vierboom, 2021. "The Changing Age Distribution of the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 527-539, June.
    5. Agnieszka Fihel & Anna Janicka & Weronika Kloc-Nowak, 2018. "The direct and indirect impact of international migration on the population ageing process: A formal analysis and its application to Poland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(43), pages 1303-1338.
    6. Cecilia Reynaud & Sara Miccoli, 2018. "Depopulation and the Aging Population: The Relationship in Italian Municipalities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-12, March.
    7. Fernando Fernandes & Cássio M. Turra & Eduardo L.G. Rios Neto, 2023. "World population aging as a function of period demographic conditions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(13), pages 353-372.
    8. Haodong Qi & Kirk Scott & Tommy Bengtsson, 2019. "Extending working life: experiences from Sweden, 1981–2011," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 17(1), pages 099-120.
    9. Anna Jancz & Radoslaw Trojanek, 2020. "Housing Preferences of Seniors and Pre-Senior Citizens in Poland—A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-20, June.
    10. Pavel Morda, 2021. "Compliance with fiscal rules in EU countries [Dodržování fiskálních pravidel v zemích EU]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(1), pages 5-21.
    11. Dănuț-Vasile JEMNA & Mihaela DAVID, 2021. "Determinants of ageing in Romania. Evidence from regional-level panel analysis," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13(1), pages 17-32, May.
    12. Michael Murphy, 2021. "Use of Counterfactual Population Projections for Assessing the Demographic Determinants of Population Ageing," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 211-242, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:48:y:2022:i:2:p:279-302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.