This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

VAR, Error Correction and Pretest Forecasts at Long Horizons

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Stock, James H

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper focuses on the construction of forecasts over long horizons where a typical, long-horizon forecast might span four years using twenty to forty years' data. It is argued that the presence of persistence in the form of unit or near-unit autoregressive roots poses substantial difficulties for long-horizon interval and point forecasting. These difficulties may not be overcome even by efficient pretesting or model-selection procedures and might, in general, lead to point forecasts with large asymptotic root mean squared errors and undesirably wide prediction intervals. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 58 (1996)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 685-701
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:58:y:1996:i:4:p:685-701

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0305-9049

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2004. "Forecasting with VARMA Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/25, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Forecasting Euro-Area Variables with German Pre-EMU Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-065, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Instability and Non-Linearity in the EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 3312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 1999. "Forecasting Dynamic Time Series in the Presence of Deterministic Components," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 445, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 216, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," NBER Working Papers 6928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
  10. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecast pooling for short time series of macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 212, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Rossen Valkanov, 1999. "The Term Structure with Highly Persistent Interest Rates," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1099, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2009. "Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/17, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc also has a blog.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.