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Testing for the Presence of Time-Varying Risk Premium Using a Mean-Conditional-Variance Optimization Model

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  • Ngama, Yerima Lawan

Abstract

This paper develops a version of the mean-variance optimization model that yields three equilibrium conditions: covered interest parity (CIP), forward rate unbiasedness (FU) and uncovered interest rate parity (UIP). The last two hold in the standard fashion only when agents are risk neutral. The exchange risk premium depends on the conditional variance of the future spot exchange rate. This is generated by a GARCH (1.1) Model. Using the Phillips and Hansen (1990) estimation and inference procedures, we find that CIP holds, while the UIP and FU can be rejected only for the Japanese yen. Evidence of the presence of time varying risk premia is found in the Deutschemark and the Japanese yen. All the variables for the three relationships are found to be cointegrated. Copyright 1994 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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  • Ngama, Yerima Lawan, 1994. "Testing for the Presence of Time-Varying Risk Premium Using a Mean-Conditional-Variance Optimization Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(2), pages 189-208, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:56:y:1994:i:2:p:189-208
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    Cited by:

    1. So, Raymond W., 2001. "Price and volatility spillovers between interest rate and exchange value of the US dollar," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 95-107.
    2. Shu-Mei Chiang & Chi-Tai Lin & Chien-Ming Huang, 2013. "The Relationships Among Stocks, Bonds and Gold: Safe Haven, Hedge or Neither?," Diversity, Technology, and Innovation for Operational Competitiveness: Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Technology Innovation and Industrial Management,, ToKnowPress.

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