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A Catalytic Model of Infection for Measles

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  • D. A. Griffiths

Abstract

Catalytic epidemic models are concerned with the age distribution at attack of infectious disease. A catalytic linear infection model, in which it is assumed that the force of infection acting on an individual is a linear function of age, is developed and applied to measles. The model is fitted to measles incidence data in England and Wales for the period 1956–69. Trends in time and differences between populations in estimated parameter values are discussed. In particular, it is observed that the (estimated) mean age at attack has decreased linearly with time over that period. It is hypothesized that the introduction of large‐scale vaccination programmes may alter the age distribution of attack among the remaining susceptibles.

Suggested Citation

  • D. A. Griffiths, 1974. "A Catalytic Model of Infection for Measles," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 23(3), pages 330-339, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:23:y:1974:i:3:p:330-339
    DOI: 10.2307/2347126
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    Cited by:

    1. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2016. "Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1383-1403, July.
    2. Nikolaos Sfikas & David Greenhalgh & Fraser Lewis, 2007. "The Basic Reproduction Number and the Vaccination Coverage Required to Eliminate Rubella from England and Wales," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 3-29.
    3. Metcalf, C.J.E. & Lessler, J. & Klepac, P. & Morice, A. & Grenfell, B.T. & Bjørnstad, O.N., 2012. "Structured models of infectious disease: Inference with discrete data," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 82(4), pages 275-282.
    4. Ziv Shkedy & Marc Aerts & Geert Molenberghs & Philippe Beutels & Pierre Van Damme, 2003. "Modelling forces of infection by using monotone local polynomials," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 52(4), pages 469-485, October.
    5. Ricardo Arraes de Alencar Ximenes & Celina Maria Turchi Martelli & Marcos Amaku & Ana Marli C Sartori & Patricia Coelho de Soárez & Hillegonda Maria Dutilh Novaes & Leila Maria Moreira Beltrão Pereira, 2014. "Modelling the Force of Infection for Hepatitis A in an Urban Population-Based Survey: A Comparison of Transmission Patterns in Brazilian Macro-Regions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-10, May.
    6. Ba’ Pham & Maggie Hong Chen & Andrea C. Tricco & Andrea Anonychuk & Murray Krahn & Chris T. Bauch, 2012. "Use of a Catalytic Model to Estimate Hepatitis A Incidence in a Low-Endemicity Country," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(1), pages 167-175, January.

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