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Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes

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  • Anthony W. Ledford
  • Jonathan A. Tawn
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    Abstract

    The analysis of extreme values within a stationary time series entails various assumptions concerning its long- and short-range dependence. We present a range of new diagnostic tools for assessing whether these assumptions are appropriate and for identifying structure within extreme events. These tools are based on tail characteristics of joint survivor functions but can be implemented by using existing estimation methods for extremes of univariate independent and identically distributed variables. Our diagnostic aids are illustrated through theoretical examples, simulation studies and by application to rainfall and exchange rate data. On the basis of these diagnostics we can explain characteristics that are found in the observed extreme events of these series and also gain insight into the properties of events that are more extreme than those observed. Copyright 2003 Royal Statistical Society.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Royal Statistical Society in its journal Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology).

    Volume (Year): 65 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 521-543

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssb:v:65:y:2003:i:2:p:521-543

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    Cited by:
    1. Ferreira, Helena & Ferreira, Marta, 2012. "Tail dependence between order statistics," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 176-192.
    2. Ceylan Onay & Gözde Ünal, 2012. "Cointegration and Extreme Value Analyses of Bovespa and the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(1), pages 66-90, February.
    3. Cooley, Daniel & Davis, Richard A. & Naveau, Philippe, 2010. "The pairwise beta distribution: A flexible parametric multivariate model for extremes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(9), pages 2103-2117, October.
    4. Zhang, Zhengjun & Shinki, Kazuhiko, 2007. "Extreme co-movements and extreme impacts in high frequency data in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1399-1415, May.
    5. Zhang, Zhengjun & Huang, James, 2006. "Extremal financial risk models and portfolio evaluation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2313-2338, December.
    6. John G. Galbraith & Serguei Zernov, 2006. "Extreme Dependence In The Nasdaq And S&P Composite Indexes," Departmental Working Papers 2006-14, McGill University, Department of Economics.

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