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On the time to extinction in recurrent epidemics

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  • I. Nåsell

Abstract

An approximation is derived for the expected time to extinction in a stochastic model for recurrent epidemics. Numerical illustrations indicate that the approximation is crude but that it has the correct order of magnitude. The quasi‐stationary distribution plays an important role in the derivation. Approximations for the critical community size and of the persistence threshold are derived. Comments are made on the classical study by Bartlell (1956–1960).

Suggested Citation

  • I. Nåsell, 1999. "On the time to extinction in recurrent epidemics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(2), pages 309-330, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssb:v:61:y:1999:i:2:p:309-330
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9868.00178
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