IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v182y2019i3p1081-1095.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Confidence in risk assessments

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Rougier

Abstract

Risk is assessed with varying degrees of confidence, and the degree of confidence is relevant to the risk manager. The paper proposes an operational framework for representing confidence, based on an expert's current beliefs about how her beliefs might be different in the future. Two modelling simplifications, ‘no unknown unknowns’ and a homogeneous Poisson process, make this framework trivial to apply. This is illustrated for assessing an exceedance probability for a large event, with volcanic risk as a specific example. The paper ends with a discussion about risk and confidence assessments for national scale risk assessment, including several further illustrations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Rougier, 2019. "Confidence in risk assessments," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 182(3), pages 1081-1095, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:182:y:2019:i:3:p:1081-1095
    DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12445
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12445
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/rssa.12445?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aren Selim & Hamamci Hatice Nayman, 2023. "Mediating Effect of Pleasure-Seeking and Loss Aversion in the Relationship Between Phantasy and Financial Risk Tolerance and the Moderating Role of Confidence," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(2), pages 24-44, December.
    2. Jonathan Rougier, 2021. "Estimating event‐rates from unreliable historical records," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(2), pages 494-503, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:182:y:2019:i:3:p:1081-1095. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.