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A mixed effects model for identifying goal scoring ability of footballers

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  • Ian G. McHale
  • Łukasz Szczepański

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="rssa12015-abs-0001"> The paper presents a model that can be used to identify the goal scoring ability of footballers. By decomposing the scoring process into the generation of shots and the conversion of shots to goals, abilities can be estimated from two mixed effects models. We compare several versions of our model as a tool for predicting the number of goals that a player will score in the following season with that of a naive method whereby a player's goals-per-minute ratio is assumed to be constant from one season to the next. We find that our model outperforms the naive model and that this outperformance can be attributed, in some part, to the model's disaggregating a player's ability and chance that may have influenced his goal scoring statistic in the previous season.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian G. McHale & Łukasz Szczepański, 2014. "A mixed effects model for identifying goal scoring ability of footballers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 177(2), pages 397-417, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:177:y:2014:i:2:p:397-417
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/rssa.2014.177.issue-2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sumit Sarkar & Sooraj Kamath, 2023. "Does luck play a role in the determination of the rank positions in football leagues? A study of Europe’s ‘big five’," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 245-260, June.
    2. Rose D. Baker & Ian G. McHale, 2015. "Time varying ratings in association football: the all-time greatest team is.," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(2), pages 481-492, February.
    3. Kharrat, Tarak & McHale, Ian G. & Peña, Javier López, 2020. "Plus–minus player ratings for soccer," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(2), pages 726-736.
    4. Maurizio Carpita & Enrico Ciavolino & Paola Pasca, 2021. "Players’ Role-Based Performance Composite Indicators of Soccer Teams: A Statistical Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 156(2), pages 815-830, August.
    5. Gavin A. Whitaker & Ricardo Silva & Daniel Edwards & Ioannis Kosmidis, 2021. "A Bayesian approach for determining player abilities in football," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 174-201, January.
    6. Łukasz Szczepański & Ian McHale, 2016. "Beyond completion rate: evaluating the passing ability of footballers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(2), pages 513-533, February.

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