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Using panel methods to model waiting times for National Health Service surgery

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  • Stephen Martin
  • Peter C. Smith

Abstract

Long waiting times for non-emergency (elective) procedures are a central feature of the UK's National Health Service, with about 1 million people waiting for surgery at any one time. This paper develops empirical models of the demand for and supply of elective surgery which simultaneously determine waiting times. The models are tested by using a panel of annual data for 5499 small areas from 1991 to 1998. Supply and demand functions are estimated for all specialties combined and for seven individual specialties, using panel data methods that incorporate simultaneously determined variables. The elasticity of demand with respect to waiting time varies between specialties but is always quite small. The results are discussed in the light of UK Government policy initiatives designed to reduce waiting times substantially. The analysis suggests that these initiatives will not stimulate demand markedly and therefore stand a good chance of succeeding provided that adequate additional resources are made available. Copyright 2003 Royal Statistical Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Statistical Society in its journal Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A.

Volume (Year): 166 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 369-387

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:166:y:2003:i:3:p:369-387

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Cited by:
  1. Gaynor, Martin & Laudicella, Mauro & Propper, Carol, 2012. "Can governments do it better? Merger mania and hospital outcomes in the English NHS," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 528-543.
  2. Guillem López-Casasnovas & Marc Saez, 2007. "A multilevel analysis on the determinants of regional health care expenditure: a note," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 59-65, March.
  3. Dixon, Huw & Siciliani, Luigi, 2009. "Waiting-time targets in the healthcare sector: How long are we waiting?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1081-1098, December.
  4. Fabrizio Iacone & Steve Martin & Luigi Siciliani & Peter C Smith, 2007. "Modelling the Dynamics of a Public Health Care System: Evidence from Time-Series Data," Discussion Papers 07/23, Department of Economics, University of York.
  5. A. Sharma; & L. Siciliani; & A. Harris ;, 2011. "Waiting times and socioeconomic status: does sample selection matter?," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 11/22, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  6. Martin, Stephen & Rice, Nigel & Jacobs, Rowena & Smith, Peter, 2007. "The market for elective surgery: Joint estimation of supply and demand," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 263-285, March.
  7. Marc Saez & Carme Saurina & Germ� Coenders & S�nia González-Raya, 2006. "Use of primary health care services according to the different degrees of obesity in the Girona Health Region, Spain," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 173-193.
  8. Siciliani, Luigi, 2006. "A dynamic model of supply of elective surgery in the presence of waiting times and waiting lists," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 891-907, September.
  9. Frank Windmeijer & Hugh Gravell & Pierre Hoonhout, 2004. "Waiting lists, waiting times and admissions: an empirical analysis at hospital and general practice level," IFS Working Papers W04/35, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  10. Luigi Siciliani & Steve Martin, 2007. "An empirical analysis of the impact of choice on waiting times," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(8), pages 763-779.
  11. Brown, Sarah & Dietrich, Michael & Ortiz-Nuñez, Aurora & Taylor, Karl, 2011. "Self-employment and attitudes towards risk: Timing and unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 425-433, June.

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