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A Theory of the Dynamics of Security Returns around Market Closures

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  • Slezak, Steve L
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    Abstract

    Numerous empirical studies document patterns in the means and variances of security returns measured over periods that are punctuated by market closures. This article develops a multiperiod model in which closures delay the resolution of uncertainty, thereby redistributing risk across time and agents. Since agents are risk averse in the model, this redistribution affects the equilibrium price, altering risk premia, liquidity costs, and the degree of informational asymmetry. As a consequence, closures alter both the means and variances of returns. The article demonstrates that closures can generate a variety of mean and variance effects, including those that mirror the empirical phenomena. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 49 (1994)
    Issue (Month): 4 (September)
    Pages: 1163-1211

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:49:y:1994:i:4:p:1163-1211

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    Cited by:
    1. Rhee, S. Ghon & Wang, Chi-Jeng, 1997. "The bid-ask bounce effect and the spread size effect: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 231-258, June.
    2. Ito, T. & Lyons, R. & Melvin, M.T., 1997. "Is There Private Information on the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Papers 97-04, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
    3. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Souza, Nathalia A., 2005. "Periodic market closures and the long-range dependence phenomena in the Brazilian equity market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 351(2), pages 512-522.
    4. Greenwood, Robin, 2005. "Short- and long-term demand curves for stocks: theory and evidence on the dynamics of arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 607-649, March.
    5. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1995. "On rules versus discretion in procedures to halt trade," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2004. "An empirical examination of the intraday volatility in euro-dollar rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 44-57, February.
    7. Alex Boulatov & Dmitry Livdan, 2006. "Strategic Trading with Market Closures," 2006 Meeting Papers 44, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1997. "The ex ante effects of trade halting rules on informed trading strategies and market liquidity," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14.
    9. Robert A. Connolly & Christopher T. Stivers, 2000. "Evidence on the Economics of Equity Return Volatility Clustering," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1575, Econometric Society.
    10. Fan, Yu-Ju & Lai, Hung-Neng, 2006. "The intraday effect and the extension of trading hours for Taiwanese securities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 328-347.
    11. Chiang, Thomas C. & Yu, Hai-Chin & Wu, Ming-Chya, 2009. "Statistical properties, dynamic conditional correlation and scaling analysis: Evidence from Dow Jones and Nasdaq high-frequency data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1555-1570.
    12. Sait Ozturk & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Intraday Price Discovery in Fragmented Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-027/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Liu, Yu-Jane, 1997. "Periodic market closure and order imbalances," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111.
    14. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Cai, Jun, 2000. "Intraday and interday volatility in the Japanese stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-130, June.
    15. Deb, Pragyan & Koo, Bonsoo & Liu, Zijun, 2014. "Competition, premature trading and excess volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 178-193.

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