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Time Varying Term Premia and Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure

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Author Info
 Longstaff, Francis A
Abstract

Empirical evidence of time varying term premia in bond returns is frequently interpreted as evidence against the expectations hypothesis. This paper shows that the expectations hypothesis can actually imply time varying term premia if the time frame for which the expectations hypothesis holds differs from the return measurement period. Furthermore, many of the properties of these term premia are consistent with those of observed term premia. These results are important because they imply that the case against the expectations hypothesis is weaker than claimed in the empirical literature. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 45 (1990)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1307-14
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:45:y:1990:i:4:p:1307-14

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  1. Yougsoo Choi & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2008. "A Simple Model of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 08011, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Franco Parisi, 1998. "Tasas de Interés Nominal de Corto Plazo en Chile: Una Comparación Empírica de sus Modelos," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(105), pages 161-182. [Downloadable!]
  3. A. Mansur & M. Masih & Vicky Ryan, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Australia: an application of long run structural modelling," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 557-573, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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