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Asymmetric impact of earnings news on investor uncertainty

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  • Zihang Peng
  • David Johnstone
  • Demetris Christodoulou

Abstract

We describe a model that predicts an asymmetric impact of disclosure on investor uncertainty. We show that good news tends to resolve more uncertainty than bad news, and that uncertainty can be revised upwards if the investors' prior belief is sufficiently strong and the signal is sufficiently bad. This result is in contrast to classical disclosure models, where new information always resolves uncertainty and the change in uncertainty depends only on the relative precision of the news. Using option‐implied volatility as a proxy for uncertainty, we find strong support for our predictions. We also show that our results are robust to competing explanations, notably to the leverage effect and volatility feedback, as well as to the jump risk induced in anticipation of the earnings announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Zihang Peng & David Johnstone & Demetris Christodoulou, 2020. "Asymmetric impact of earnings news on investor uncertainty," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1-2), pages 3-26, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:47:y:2020:i:1-2:p:3-26
    DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12428
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad, Muhammad Munir & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Taskin, Dilvin, 2023. "Do asymmetric information and leverage affect investment decisions?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 337-345.
    2. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    3. Wen Chen & Mozaffar Khan & Leonid Kogan & George Serafeim, 2021. "Cross‐firm return predictability and accounting quality," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1-2), pages 70-101, January.
    4. D. J. Johnstone, 2021. "Accounting information, disclosure, and expected utility: Do investors really abhor uncertainty?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1-2), pages 3-35, January.
    5. Stephen Taylor & Alex Tong, 2023. "How important are semi‐annual earnings announcements? An information event perspective," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(3), pages 3585-3607, September.
    6. Jeong‐Bon Kim & Jeff J. Wang & Eliza Xia Zhang, 2021. "Does real earnings smoothing reduce investors’ perceived risk?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(9-10), pages 1560-1595, October.
    7. Figlioli, Bruno & Lemes, Sirlei & Lima, Fabiano Guasti, 2020. "In search for good news: The relationship between accounting information, bounded rationality and hard-to-value stocks," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).

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