Capital Market Excesses And Competitive Strength: The Case Of The Hard Disk Drive Industry 1984–2000

In a much‐cited 1985 study of the U.S. hard disk drive industry entitled “Capital Market Myopia,” William Sahlman and Howard Stevenson concluded that “excesses in the capital markets turned an opportunity into a disaster” for investors in the emerging industry. Sahlman and Stevenson fretted about what their findings implied not only for investors but also for the industrial competitiveness of the U.S.A. With the benefit of hindsight, the research presented in this article shows how the hard disk drive industry has evolved in the past 15 years to the point where disk drives are a vital part of the information technology revolution that has transformed the way we live, work, and play. The authors' research examines the financial performance of both hard disk drive manufacturers and storage system manufacturers completely dependent on hard disk drives; looks at improvements in the technical performance of hard drives; and then compares the competitiveness of U.S. companies with foreign manufacturers. After the venture capital/IPO bubble of the early 1980s gave way to the traditional discipline of U.S. financial markets, many weak companies were driven out of business and others were forced to consolidate. Only a handful of the startup firms survived. But these U.S companies, together with IBM, now dominate the global hard drive market. Moreover, there are striking parallels between the 1982–84 hard drive bubble and the recent experience of U.S. Internet firms. Although the first half of 2000 saw a large number of closings, forced sales, and IPO cancellations by American dot‐coms, a number of the likely “survivors”—notably, Yahoo, eBay, and Amazon.com—now seem poised to dominate their global markets.