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Emerging market capital flows and U.S. monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • John Clark
  • Nathan Converse
  • Brahima Coulibaly
  • Steven B. Kamin

Abstract

This paper analyzes the drivers of net private capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs), focusing in particular on the policies of the Federal Reserve. We argue that the role of the Federal Reserve in EME capital flows has been smaller than popularly believed. We first show that the run‐up in capital flows to EMEs predated the loosening of Fed policy, while flows slowed substantially between 2010 and 2015, even as the Fed's quantitative easing program continued to add to monetary stimulus. Both the initial surge in capital flows to EMEs and their subsequent decline are better explained by swings in commodity prices and EME output growth, a linkage which we confirm through panel data regressions on capital flows to 20 major EMEs. The anticipation of the normalization of Federal Reserve policy appears not to have played a predominant role in the decline of capital flows to EME between 2010 and 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • John Clark & Nathan Converse & Brahima Coulibaly & Steven B. Kamin, 2020. "Emerging market capital flows and U.S. monetary policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 2-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:23:y:2020:i:1:p:2-17
    DOI: 10.1111/infi.12355
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    Cited by:

    1. Park, Sangjin & Yang, Jae-Suk, 2021. "Relationships between capital flow and economic growth: A network analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2021. "Capital flow waves—or ripples? Extreme capital flow movements since the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    4. Naib ALAKBAROV & Yılmaz BAYAR, 2021. "International Financial Market Integration and The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle: Evidence from Emerging Market Economies," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 143-165, December.

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