Dynamics of Material and Energy Use in U.S. Pulp and Paper Manufacturing

This article presents a dynamic computer model of US. pulp and paper production to facilitate organization of diverse industry data and to investigate the industry's likely material and energy use in the future. A set of probable scenarios of growth in paper and paperboard production, wastepaper utilization rates, and diffusion of technologies within the industry is used to assess the realm of material and energy use profiles for the period 1988‐2020. Several conclusions emerge from this study. First, stabilizing or reducing total energy consumption in pulp and paper production, in combination with moderate production growth, quires that future annual increases in energy efficiency must be almost twice as high as the efficiency improvements achieved for the period 1972‐1992. Second, to maintain or increase the industry's use of biomass fuels depends on one or a combination of different approaches, such as rapid dissemination of energy‐saving technology or reduction in the rate of growth of wastepaper utilization. Third, increased wastepaper utilization rates lead to a significant replacement of pulpwood by recycled fiber. Yet toyal pulpwood consumption continues to increase to satisr) the requirements of increased paper and paperboard produdion, even under the assumption that the wastepaper utilization rate passes 50% and wastepaper utilization triples by the year 2020