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An Empirical Comparison of Bankruptcy Models

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  • Mossman, Charles E, et al
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    Abstract

    Four types of bankruptcy prediction models based on financial statement ratios, cash flows, stock returns, and return standard deviations are compared. Based on a ample of bankruptcies from 1980 to 1991, results indicate that no existing model of bankruptcy adequately captures the data. During the last fiscal year preceding bankruptcy, none of the individual models may be excluded without a loss in explanatory power. If considered in isolation, the cash flow model discriminates most consistently two to three years before bankruptcy. By comparison, the ratio model is the best single model during the year immediately preceding bankruptcy. Quasi-jack-knifing procedures suggest that none of the models can reliably predict bankruptcy more than two years in advance. Copyright 1998 by MIT Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Eastern Finance Association in its journal The Financial Review.

    Volume (Year): 33 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 35-53

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:33:y:1998:i:2:p:35-53

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    Web page: http://www.easternfinance.org/
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    Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0732-8516

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    Cited by:
    1. Laitinen, Erkki K. & Laitinen, Teija, 2000. "Bankruptcy prediction: Application of the Taylor's expansion in logistic regression," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 327-349.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2006. "In Search of Distress Risk," NBER Working Papers 12362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. du Jardin, Philippe & Séverin, Eric, 2012. "Forecasting financial failure using a Kohonen map: A comparative study to improve model stability over time," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 378-396.
    4. du Jardin, Philippe, 2010. "Predicting bankruptcy using neural networks and other classification methods: the influence of variable selection techniques on model accuracy," MPRA Paper 44375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Joh, Sung Wook, 2003. "Corporate governance and firm profitability: evidence from Korea before the economic crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 287-322, May.
    6. Sanvicente, A. Z & Minardi, A. M. A. F, 1998. "Identificação de indicadores contábeis significativos para previsão de concordata de empresas," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_3, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    7. Philosophov, Leonid V. & Philosophov, Vladimir L., 1999. "Optimization of corporate capital structure A probabilistic Bayesian approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 199-214, March.
    8. Maurice Peat, 2007. "Factors Affecting the Probability of Bankruptcy: A Managerial Decision Based Approach," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 43(3), pages 303-324.
    9. CIOTINA Daniela & CIOTINA Ioan Marius, 2013. "Symptoms of Bankruptcy and Prediction Models of Bankruptcy Risk," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 114-121, May.
    10. Sami Ben Jabeur & Youssef Fahmi, 2014. "Les modèles de prévision de la défaillance des entreprises françaises : une approche comparative," Working Papers 2014-317, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    11. Westgaard, Sjur & van der Wijst, Nico, 2001. "Default probabilities in a corporate bank portfolio: A logistic model approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 338-349, December.
    12. Dariusz Wedzki, 2005. "Multivariate analysis of bankruptcy on the example of building industry," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 2, pages 59-81.
    13. Sung Wook. Joh, 2004. "The Korean Economic Crisis and Corporate Governance System," NBER Chapters, in: Governance, Regulation, and Privatization in the Asia-Pacific Region, NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 12, pages 129-158 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Cochran, James J. & Darrat, Ali F. & Elkhal, Khaled, 2006. "On the bankruptcy of internet companies: An empirical inquiry," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(10-11), pages 1193-1200, October.
    15. Philosophov, Leonid V. & Philosophov, Vladimir L., 2002. "Corporate bankruptcy prognosis: An attempt at a combined prediction of the bankruptcy event and time interval of its occurrence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 375-406.

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