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Oil prices, growth, and remittance outflows from the Gulf Cooperation Council

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  • Supriyo De
  • Saad Quayyum
  • Kirsten Schuettler
  • Seyed Reza Yousefi

Abstract

How does a decline in oil prices and its impacts on growth affect remittance outflows from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries? This paper carries out an empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices, oil‐ and non‐oil GDP, and remittances outflows from the GCC. The findings of our paper are three folds. First, we find that non‐oil GDP is a key determinant of remittance outflows and that oil GDP is a significant driver of non‐oil GDP in the GCC only in the long term. Second, we document that historically oil prices and remittances tend to broadly move in the same direction but that remittances have been much less volatile than oil prices. An analysis of the past large oil price declines shows that remittance flows to major remittance recipients in Mashreq, Pakistan, and Yemen fell only modestly following large declines in oil prices and recovered quickly in line with oil prices. Finally, we estimate the elasticity of remittance outflows with respect to non‐oil GDP in the GCC using various techniques. Estimates of short‐term elasticity vary between 0.5 and 0.8, while estimates of long‐term elasticity vary between 0.6 and 1.1. We find that construction and government services are two non‐oil GDP components that are strongly associated with remittance outflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Supriyo De & Saad Quayyum & Kirsten Schuettler & Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2019. "Oil prices, growth, and remittance outflows from the Gulf Cooperation Council," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(3), November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:48:y:2019:i:3:n:e12144
    DOI: 10.1111/ecno.12144
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    Cited by:

    1. Alshammari Nayef & Faras Reyadh & Alshuwaiee Wael, 2022. "Economic and Political Drivers of Remittance Transfer," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 54-67, June.
    2. Alsamara, Mouyad, 2022. "Do labor remittance outflows retard economic growth in Qatar? Evidence from nonlinear cointegration," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-9.
    3. Haider Mahmood, 2021. "Oil Price and Industrial Growth in Saudi Arabia: Sectoral and Asymmetry Analyses," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 7-13.
    4. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair, 2023. "Investigating the impact of remittance outflows and oil price on economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Haider Mahmood, 2020. "The Oil Price and Trade Nexus in the Gulf Co-Operation Council Countries," Resources, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Gulmira Moldabekova & Zhanarys Raimbekov & Arsen Tleppayev & Yuliya Tyurina & Raushan Yesbergen & Gulimai Amaniyazova, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Macroeconomic Indicators of Kazakhstan and the Consequences for the Formation of Social Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-454, July.
    7. Anthony Enisan Akinlo & Michael Segun Ojo, 2021. "Examining the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on remittances inflows: evidence from Nigeria," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Pamela Efua Ofori & Daryna Grechyna & Muhammad Shafiullah, 2021. "Remittances, natural resource rent and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1979305-197, January.
    9. Alessio Ciarlone, 2023. "Remittances in times of crisis: evidence from Italian corridors," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1402, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Haider Mahmood, 2020. "Oil Price and Capital Formation Nexus in GCC Countries: Asymmetry Analyses," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 146-151.
    11. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Haider Mahmood, 2020. "Oil Price and Energy Depletion Nexus in GCC Countries: Asymmetry Analyses," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-13, June.

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