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The Impact Of Inflation On Property Crime

Author

Listed:
  • John M. Nunley
  • Michael L. Stern
  • Richard A. Seals
  • Joachim Zietz

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="coep12156-abs-0001"> Using U.S. data from 1950 to 2010, we analyze to what extent inflation raises the incidence of property crime. To match our theoretical predictions, we consider different types of property crime (larceny, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and robbery) and broad and narrow definitions of inflation separately. We control for the state of the business cycle and demographic changes over time explicitly. Unobserved or difficult-to-measure determinants of property crime are captured through a stochastic-trend specification within a state-space framework. We find a robust statistical link between inflation and each of the four property crime rates. Our findings are robust to alternative definitions of inflation and the inclusion or exclusion of different control variables. In terms of policy, our findings suggest that monetary policy that creates inflation has costly spillover effects. (JEL J10, J11)

Suggested Citation

  • John M. Nunley & Michael L. Stern & Richard A. Seals & Joachim Zietz, 2016. "The Impact Of Inflation On Property Crime," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(3), pages 483-499, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:34:y:2016:i:3:p:483-499
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/coep.2016.34.issue-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernd Fitzenberger & Benjamin Fuchs, 2017. "The Residency Discount for Rents in Germany and the Tenancy Law Reform Act 2001: Evidence from Quantile Regressions," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 18(2), pages 212-236, May.
    2. Lovett Nicholas, 2018. "Food Stamps, Income Shocks, and Crime: Evidence from California," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Rui Evangelista & João Andrade E Silva & Esmeralda A. Ramalho, 2021. "How heterogeneous is the impact of energy efficiency on dwelling prices? Evidence from the application of the unconditional quantile hedonic model to the Portuguese residential market," Working Papers REM 2021/0186, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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