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Explaining the United States' Industrial Growth, 1860-1991: Endogenous versus Exogenous Models

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  • Greasley, David
  • Oxley, Les

Abstract

This paper considers the historical record and time series properties of United States' industrial production for the period 1860 to 1991, utilizing unit root tests and measures of persistence. The results identify a segmented trend model which is used to assess the time-series simulation performance of four well-known models of economic growth: Solow (1957); Mankiw, Romer and Weil (MRW, 1992); Barro and Sala i Martin (BSM, 1992); and Rebelo (1991). Both the MRW and BSM models dominate the Solow model in accounting for twentieth century industrial growth, highlighting the importance of human capital, and the paper suggests a new measure related to higher education. However, the Rebelo model explains the post-1973 slowdown more successfully than either of the 'augmented-Solow' approaches. The paper concludes with a discussion of the impact of shocks on US industrial growth. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Board of Trustees of the Bulletin of Economic Research

Suggested Citation

  • Greasley, David & Oxley, Les, 1996. "Explaining the United States' Industrial Growth, 1860-1991: Endogenous versus Exogenous Models," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 65-82, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:48:y:1996:i:1:p:65-82
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    Cited by:

    1. Greasley, David & Oxley, Les, 1998. "Comparing British and American Economic and Industrial Performance 1860-1993: A Time Series Perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 171-195, April.
    2. Les Oxley & David Greasley, 1995. "A Time‐Series Perspective on Convergence: Australia, UK and USA since 1870," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(3), pages 259-270, September.
    3. Richard Vogel & W. Hubert Keen, 2010. "Public Higher Education and New York State’s Economy," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 24(4), pages 384-393, November.
    4. Alexiadis, Stilianos & Eleftheriou, Konstantinos, 2011. "Health is wealth: an empirical note across the US states," MPRA Paper 33517, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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