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On the Interpretation of Covariate Estimates in Independent Competing-Risks Models

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  • Thomas, Jonathan M
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    Abstract

    Competing-risks models are becomingly increasingly pervasive in applied research to explain the factors determining both the time in a state (i.e. unemployment) and the exit route from the state (i.e. leaving unemployment for a job or non-participation). However, as in many limited dependent variable models, the interpretation of the covariate estimates requires care. Despite assertions to the contrary in many published papers, it is shown that the estimated qualitative effect of a covariate on the hazard for risk "j" typically conveys no information on its qualitative effect on either the likelihood of, or unexpected time until, exit via "j." This is because such magnitudes depend on the qualitative and quantitative effects of the covariate on other risks which cannot be ignored. The point is demonstrated by using UK data on the unemployment to re-employment transitions of a sample of male job losers. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Board of Trustees of the Bulletin of Economic Research

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Bulletin of Economic Research.

    Volume (Year): 48 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 27-39

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:48:y:1996:i:1:p:27-39

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    Cited by:
    1. Arntz, Melanie & Wilke, Ralf A. & Winterhager, Henrik, 2006. "Regionenmatching im Rahmen der Evaluation der Experimentierungsklausel des § 6c SGB II: Methodische Vorgehensweise und Ergebnisse," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-61, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    2. Dirk Oberschachtsiek, 2012. "The experience of the founder and self-employment duration: a comparative advantage approach," Small Business Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Bradley, Steve & Crouchley, Rob & Oskrochi, Reza, 2003. "Social exclusion and labour market transitions: a multi-state multi-spell analysis using the BHPS," Labour Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(6), pages 659-679, December.
    4. Roberto Fontana & Lionel Nesta, 2007. "Product Innovation and Survival in a High-Tech Industry," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) 2007-30, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
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    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6127 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Roberto Fontana & Lionel Nesta, 2007. "Entry, Innovation and Exit. Evidence from the LAN switch Industry," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) 2007-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    8. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Wahba, Jackline, 2014. "Do high-income or low-income immigrants leave faster?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 54-68.
    9. Bijwaard, Govert, 2009. "Labour Market Status and Migration Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 4530, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    10. Katariina Nilsson Hakkala & Alessandro Sembenelli, 2014. "Multinationals, Competition and Productivity Spillovers through Worker Mobility," Working Papers 54, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
    11. Cihan Bilginsoy, 2005. "Delivering Skills: Apprenticeship Program Sponsorship and Transition from Training," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah, University of Utah, Department of Economics 2005_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    12. Lionel Nesta & Roberto Fontana, 2007. "Entry, Innovation and Exit from LAN Switch Industry," Sciences Po publications 2007-02, Sciences Po.

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