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Modeling Heterogeneity and State Dependence in Consumer Choice Behavior

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Author Info
Keane, Michael P

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Abstract

In frequently-purchased-consumer-goods markets, consumer brand choices exhibit substantial persistence across purchase occasions. In this article, the author estimates a choice model that admits of both heterogeneity in preferences and true state dependence as sources of this persistence, using Nielsen scanner data on ketchup. He finds evidence for true state dependence in the choice process, even after controlling for a rich heterogeneity structure. Simulation of the model indicates that the long-term effect of a promotion-induced purchase on future purchase probabilities is positive but small.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 15 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 310-27
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:15:y:1997:i:3:p:310-27

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  1. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2006. "Discrete Choice Models with Multiple Unobserved Choice Characteristics," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001040, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ding, Yulian & Veeman, Michele M. & Adamowicz, Wiktor L., 2009. "BSE and the Dynamics of Beef Consumption: Influences of Habit and Trust," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49284, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  3. Smith, Martin D. & Wilen, James E., 1999. "Spatial Behavior Of Renewable Resource Harvesters: The California Sea Urchin Fishery," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21510, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  4. D. Fok & R. Paap & P.H. Franses, 2002. "Modeling dynamic effects of promotion on interpurchase times," Econometric Institute Report 289, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Morten Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2008. "Incomplete Cost Pass-Through Under Deep Habits," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/06, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jean-Pierre Dubé & Güenter J. Hitsch & Peter E. Rossi, 2009. "State Dependence and Alternative Explanations for Consumer Inertia," NBER Working Papers 14912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ching, Andrew & Erdem, Tulin & Keane, Michael, 2007. "The Price Consideration Model of Brand Choice," MPRA Paper 4686, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Antonio Ladrón de Guevara-Martínez, 2009. "A state-dependent model of hybrid behavior with rational consumers in the attribute space," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 33(3), pages 347-383, September. [Downloadable!]
  9. M. Weeks, 2003. "Discrete choice methods with simulation, Kenneth E. Train, Cambridge University Press, 2003, ISBN: 0-521-81696-3, pp. 334," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 379-383. [Downloadable!]
  10. Chris Forman & Pei-yu Chen, 2003. "Network Effects and Switching Costs in the Market for Routers and Switches," Working Papers 03-03, NET Institute, revised Oct 2003. [Downloadable!]
  11. Victoria Prowse, 2007. "Modeling Employment Dynamics with State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 337, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alberto Maydeu, 2008. "Modeling Preference Data," Working Papers Economia wp08-30, Instituto de Empresa, Area of Economic Environment. [Downloadable!]
  13. Richard Paap & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "A dynamic multinomial probit model for brand choice with different long-run and short-run effects of marketing-mix variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 717-744. [Downloadable!]
  14. Avi Goldfarb, 2006. "The medium-term effects of unavailability," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 143-171, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. José M. Labeaga & Mercedes Martos-Partal, 2007. "A Proposal to Distinguish State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in Binary Brand Choice Models," Working Papers 2007-02, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Netzer, Oded & Lattin, James M. & Srinivasan, V. "Seenu", 2007. "A Hidden Markov Model of Customer Relationship Dynamics," Research Papers 1904r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  17. Tülin Erdem & Michael Keane & Baohong Sun, 2008. "The impact of advertising on consumer price sensitivity in experience goods markets," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 139-176, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Mohamed Lachaab & Asim Ansari & Kamel Jedidi & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2006. "Modeling preference evolution in discrete choice models: A Bayesian state-space approach," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 57-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Fok, D. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 2001. "Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts When Modeling Brand Choice," Research Paper ERS-2001-47-MKT Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  20. Wesley Hartmann, 2006. "Intertemporal effects of consumption and their implications for demand elasticity estimates," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 325-349, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Yukako Ono & Victor Stango, 2005. "Supplier switching and outsourcing," Working Paper Series WP-05-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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