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Measuring Tail Thickness to Estimate the Stable Index Alpha: A Critique

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Author Info
McCulloch, J Huston
Abstract

A generalized Pareto or simple Pareto tail-index estimate above 2.0 has frequently been cited as evidence against infinite-variance stable distributions. It is demonstrated that this inference is invalid; tail index estimates greater than 2.0 are to be expected for stable distributions with alpha as low as 1.65. The nonregular distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic for a null of normality and an alternative of symmetric stability is tabulated by Monte Carlo methods and appropriately adjusted for sampling error in repeated tests. Real stock returns yield a stable alpha of 1.845 and reject iid normality at the 0.996 level.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 15 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 74-81
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:15:y:1997:i:1:p:74-81

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  1. Szymon Borak & Wolfgang Härdle & Rafal Weron, 2005. "Stable Distributions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Donald J. Brown & Rustam Ibragimov, 2005. "Sign Tests for Dependent Observations and Bounds for Path-Dependent Options," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1518, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  3. J. Huston McCulloch, 2005. "The Kalman Foundations of Adaptive Least Squares: Applications to Unemployment and Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 239, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. John K. Dagsvik and Bjørn H. Vatne, 1999. "Is the Distribution of Income Compatible with a Stable Distribution?," Discussion Papers 246, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  5. Nunzio Cappuccio & Diego Lubian, 2003. "Asymptotic null distributions of stationarity and nonstationarity," Working Papers 8, Università di Verona, Dipartimento di Scienze economiche. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2003. "Exact tests and confidence sets for the tail coefficient of a-stable distributions," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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