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Russian Fiscal Framework Past, Present and Future.Do we Need a Change?

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Author Info

  • Sergey Vlasov

    (Bank of Russia)

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    Abstract

    This study examines the Russian public finance system. It provides a description of the main fiscal reforms introduced by the Government from the moment of the USSR dissolution, which enabled a reduction in the economy’s dependency on nonrenewable resources. The study presents the fiscal stabilization analysis. It conducts a fiscal impulse factor analysis as well as the estimation of the degree of the fiscal policy cyclicality in the period 2000-2014. The estimates show fiscal policy was procyclical in 2006-2008 and is expected to be so in 2012 while stabilizing during the rest of the period. The study also discusses fiscal sustainability issues for the period up to 2050 under two socio-economic scenarios. The size of the necessary fiscal consolidation under the current fiscal strategy is calculated and an alternative strategy is investigated.

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    File URL: http://www.bcra.gov.ar/pdfs/investigaciones/64_Vlasov.pdf
    File Function: Spanish version (versión en Español)
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department in its journal Ensayos Económicos.

    Volume (Year): 1 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 64 (October - December)
    Pages: 35-81

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    Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2011:i:64:p:35-81

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    Related research

    Keywords: fiscal policy; fiscal stabilization; fiscal sustainability; Russia;

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    References

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    1. Martin Keene & Peter Thomson, 2007. "An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors," Treasury Working Paper Series 07/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Enrique Alberola & José M. Montero, 2006. "Debt sustainability and procyclical fical policies in Latin America," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0611, Banco de Espa�a.
    3. Ponomarenko, Alexey A. & Vlasov, Sergey A., 2010. "Russian fiscal policy during the financial crisis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    5. Ales Krejdl, 2006. "Fiscal Sustainability - Definition, Indicators and Assessment of Czech Public Finance Sustainability," Working Papers 2006/3, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia:Is the Current Crisis Different?," IMF Working Papers 10/68, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, 2008. "Fiscal Positions in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 08/137, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Petia Topalova & Dan Nyberg, 2010. "What Level of Public Debt Could India Target?," IMF Working Papers 10/7, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    10. A. Kudrin, 2007. "Stabilization Funds: International and Russian Experience," Problems of Economic Transition, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 50(1), pages 6-26, May.
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