Uncertainty and Portfolio Dollarization. The Argentine Case in the Last Half Century
AbstractThe aim of this document is to quantify the effects of uncertainty over financial assets dollarization of the Argentine non financial private sector. Our main concern is to illustrate to what extent uncertainty affects the degree of substitution between assets denominated in local and foreign currencies. Using the optimal portfolio selection theory combined with the multivariate GARCH methodology in order to estimate a model with heteroskedastic covariance matrix, we are able to estimate the efficient frontier of portfolio combination that the private sector faced. Besides, we calculate the optimal demands for dollar denominated assets for each of the monetary experiences identified for the period 1963-2009. The main conclusions of the paper are the following: (i) from the point of view of mean-variance incentives, the “Rodrigazo” of June 1975 was a turning point in dollarization of the portfolio of the non financial private sector; (ii) during the Convertibility regime, agents perceived assets denominated in local currency and in US dollars as perfect substitutes, which was reflected in incentives to dollarize around 50% of the portfolio; (iii) during 2003-2009, the degree of dollarization should have been lower than observed. This might suggest that agents consider in their decisions other features which have not been captured by our approach, such as transaction costs of building up and unwinding asset holdings, and the consideration of higher moments (skew and kurtosis).
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department in its journal Ensayos Económicos.
Volume (Year): 1 (2011)
Issue (Month): 63 (July - September)
Argentina; optimal portfolio choice; dollarization; MGARCH models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003.
"Multivariate GARCH models: a survey,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2006.
"Optimal Portfolio Allocation under Higher Moments,"
European Financial Management,
European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(1), pages 29-55.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- De Nicolo, Gianni & Honohan, Patrick & Ize, Alain, 2003.
"Dollarization of the banking system : good or bad?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3116, The World Bank.
- Jensen, S ren Tolver & Rahbek, Anders, 2004. "Asymptotic Inference For Nonstationary Garch," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(06), pages 1203-1226, December.
- Courakis, Anthony S, 1989. "Does Constant Relative Risk Aversion Imply Asset Demands That Are Linear in Expected Returns?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 553-66, July.
- Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
- Søren Tolver Jensen & Anders Rahbek, 2004. "Asymptotic Normality of the QMLE Estimator of ARCH in the Nonstationary Case," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 641-646, 03.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federico Grillo).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.