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A Cointegration Analysis on the Principle of Effective Demand in Argentina (1980-2007)

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  • Florencia Médici

    ()
    (National University of Moreno - University of Buenos Aires)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the empirical validity of the principle of the effective demand in the long run in Argentina from 1980 to 2007 using the Sraffian Supermultiplier model (Serrano, 1995). This will be done through the cointegration analysis using the Johansen method. The results of the evaluation show that the demand components have permanent effects in the long run and that there is a positive causality from final demand autonomous components towards the product. Furthermore, an estimate of both the short and the long run dynamics through an Error-Correction Model is presented. Most empirical studies in which income is determined by demand work with exports-led model à la Thirlwall (1999, 2000). Instead, not only the exports but also both the government and the non-salaried private expenditures are included in this article.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department in its journal Ensayos Económicos.

Volume (Year): 1 (2011)
Issue (Month): 61-62 (January - June)
Pages: 103-137

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Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2011:i:61-62:p:103-137

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Related research

Keywords: Argentina; cointegration; economic growth; effective demand; gross domestic product;

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References

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  1. Serrano, Franklin, 1995. "Long Period Effective Demand and the Sraffian Supermultiplier," Contributions to Political Economy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(0), pages 67-90.
  2. Pierangelo Garegnani & Antonella Palumbo, 1997. "Accomulation of capital," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0002, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  3. H. Sonmez Atesoglu, 1993. "Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 15(4), pages 507-514, July.
  4. Magnus Blomstrom & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1993. "Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 4436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  7. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
  8. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2001. "Effective Demand and Growth: An Analysis of the Alternative Closures of Keynesian Models," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2001-05, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
  9. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
  10. Schlicht, Ekkehart, . "Isolation and Aggregation in Economics," Monographs in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 3, September.
  11. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1971. "Conflicts in National Economic Objectives," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(321), pages 1-16, March.
  12. Trezzini, Attilio, 1998. "Capacity Utilisation in the Long Run: Some Further Considerations," Contributions to Political Economy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(0), pages 53-67.
  13. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, February.
  14. Oscar de-Juan, 2005. "Paths of accumulation and growth: Towards a Keynesian long-period theory of output," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 231-252.
  15. Jorge Carrera & Mariano Féliz & Demian Panigo, 1999. "Una medición de los canales de transmisión de las fluctuaciones económicas. El caso de Argentina y los Estados Unidos," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0(4), pages 77-118.
  16. Lavoie, M., 1992. "The Kaleckian Model of Growth and Distribution and its Neo-Ricardian and Neo-Marxian Critiques," Working Papers 9201e, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  17. H. Sonmez Atesoglu, 1995. "An explanation of the slowdown in US economic growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 91-94.
  18. Schefold, B, 1988. "The Dominant Technique in Joint Production Systems," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 97-123, March.
  19. A. P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Studies in Economics 1111, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  20. H. Sonmez Atesoglu, 1997. "Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model and Its Implications for the United States," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 19(3), pages 327-335, April.
  21. George K. Zestos & Xiangnan Tao, 2002. "Trade and GDP Growth: Causal Relations in the United States and Canada," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 859-874, April.
  22. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 1999. "A Note on the Theory of Demand-Led Growth," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 1999-06, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
  23. Dutt, Amitava Krishna, 1984. "Stagnation, Income Distribution and Monopoly Power," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 25-40, March.
  24. Trezzini, Attilio, 1995. "Capacity Utilisation in the Long Run and the Autonomous Components of Aggregate Demand," Contributions to Political Economy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(0), pages 33-66.
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