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Trend Labour Supply in Canada: Implications of Demographic Shifts and the Increasing Labour Force Attachment of Women

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Abstract

While demographic change has been an ongoing process in Canada, labour market implications of an aging population will become more acute in coming years. This article discusses the anticipated slowing in the growth of trend labour input over the coming decades with the aging of the baby boomers, declining fertility rates, and the stabilization of the labour force attachment of women. As the pool of labour shrinks, employers and governments will be looking for ways to address barriers to continued labour force participation and firms will have a greater incentive to find ways of improving labour productivity.

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  • Russell Barnett, 2007. "Trend Labour Supply in Canada: Implications of Demographic Shifts and the Increasing Labour Force Attachment of Women," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2007(Summer), pages 5-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2007:y:2007:i:summer07:p:5-18
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    1. Chen, Wen-Hao & Morissette, René, 2010. "Have Employment Patterns of Older Displaced Workers Improved Since the Late 1970s?," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2010-20, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 27 May 2010.
    2. Pichette, Lise & Robitaille, Marie-Noëlle & Salameh, Mohanad & St-Amant, Pierre, 2019. "Dismiss the output gaps? To use with caution given their limitations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 199-215.
    3. Dany Brouillette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille & Laurence Savoie-Chabot & Pierre St-Amant & Bassirou Gueye & Elise Martin, 2019. "The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable," Staff Working Papers 19-13, Bank of Canada.
    4. Erik Ens & Corinne Luu & Kurt See & Shu Lin Wee, 2022. "Benchmarks for assessing labour market health," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-2, Bank of Canada.
    5. Kozicki, Sharon, 2012. "Macro has progressed," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 23-28.
    6. Calista Cheung & Dmitry Granovsky & Gabriella Velasco, 2015. "Changing Labour Market Participation Since the Great Recession: A Regional Perspective," Discussion Papers 15-2, Bank of Canada.
    7. Julien Champagne & Christopher Hajzler & Dmitry Matveev & Harlee Melinchuk & Antoine Poulin-Moore & Kemal Ozhan & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2023. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2023-6, Bank of Canada.
    8. Lise Pichette & Pierre St-Amant & Ben Tomlin & Karine Anoma, 2015. "Measuring Potential Output at the Bank of Canada: The Extended Multivariate Filter and the Integrated Framework," Discussion Papers 15-1, Bank of Canada.
    9. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Marc-André Gosselin & Sharon Kozicki, 2009. "Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting," Staff Working Papers 09-35, Bank of Canada.
    10. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "The Real‐Time Properties of the Bank of Canada's Staff Output Gap Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1167-1188, September.
    11. Russell Barnett & Sharon Kozicki & Christopher Petrinec, 2009. "Parsing shocks: real-time revisions to gap and growth projections for Canada," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 247-266.
    12. Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports 102, Bank of Canada.
    13. Audra Bowlus & Youngmin Park & Chris Robinson, 2022. "Contribution of Human Capital Accumulation to Canadian Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 2022-7, Bank of Canada.
    14. Puigvert Jonathan & Juárez-Torres Miriam, 2019. "Labour Force Participation and the Business Cycle in Mexico," Working Papers 2019-04, Banco de México.
    15. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille & Mohanad Salameh & Pierre St-Amant, 2018. "Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation," Staff Working Papers 18-10, Bank of Canada.

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