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The Bulgarian economy in 2021 – 2022 – between economic recovery and stagflation concerns

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitar Zlatinov
  • Iskra Christova-Balkanska
  • Pobeda Loukanova
  • Emil Panushev
  • Viktor Yotzov
  • Grigor Sariisky
  • Sonya Georgieva
  • Yana Paliova
  • Tsvetomir Tsvetkov

Abstract

The paper examines the current state and development of the Bulgarian economy in 2021 and early 2022. The main sectors of the economy (real, fiscal, foreign, and financial) are examined, and the labour market is analysed. We assess the current policies being implemented in Bulgaria, considering regional and global developments and trends. Based on specific conclusions, we make recommendations for mitigating high-risk price dynamics, preserving incomes and employment, and ensuring fiscal stability. Employing a structural macroeconomic model, a reasoned medium-run macroeconomic scenario is proposed, reflecting different assumptions about both the dynamics of the external economic environment and the expected economic policies. The analysis of the macroeconomic situation and projections for the development of the Bulgarian economy are based on key factors such as accelerating inflation, uncertainties surrounding the epidemic situation caused by COVID-19, geopolitical turbulences in the region, and the expected acceleration of investment activity through the implementation of the projects of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitar Zlatinov & Iskra Christova-Balkanska & Pobeda Loukanova & Emil Panushev & Viktor Yotzov & Grigor Sariisky & Sonya Georgieva & Yana Paliova & Tsvetomir Tsvetkov, 2023. "The Bulgarian economy in 2021 – 2022 – between economic recovery and stagflation concerns," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 123-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2023:i:2:p:123-162
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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