Forecasting the effectiveness of the enterprise to intensify innovation and investment development, taking into account the financial component of economic potential

The study is devoted to the problem of analysis and forecasting of the effectiveness of the results of enterprises to ensure production and economic reserves to intensify innovation and investment development in the context of monitoring the state of their economic potential. It is the basis for the formation of endogenous and exogenous capabilities of the enterprise, aimed at achieving targeted results in each area of its activities. Creating favorable conditions for economic growth of enterprises based on the intensification of innovation and investment development requires the effective implementation of production programs using the financial component of economic potential. Based on the analysis of methodological tools for evaluating the activities of a mining and processing enterprise, formed a comprehensive methodology for quantitative and qualitative assessment of actual and projected values of performance indicators of the enterprise. It is based on determining the statistical probability of achieving a positive level of the indicator, the probability of its falling into a given interval of deviation from the recommended allowable values and an integrated assessment of the financial component of economic potential. Approbation of the developed technique is carried out within the limits of the express analysis of effective indicators of efficiency of activity of mining and processing enterprises. The results showed that with high reliability of the forecast (more than 0.85), the recommended values of the level of margin to achieve the desired efficiency are in the range of 8÷10 %. Within a sufficient level of reliability of the forecast (not less than 0.75), the recommended values of this margin are 10÷24 %. In this case, the integrated indicator of the assessment of the financial component should be more than 0.3